His next best tool is his ability to hit - and that's still very, very good. But the pessimist would note that speed typically doesn't age well and, in fact, the prime ages for stolen bases are actually well before a player reaches their 30s. Upwards of 50 steals doesn't seem outlandish at all. And those larger bases with limited pickoff attempts and a crackdown on balks will make the two-time All-Star a weapon on the bases. At the 99th percentile, Turner is in a class of his own. Off the top, let's focus on that sprint speed. To answer that, let's look at how elite he was in 2022, which was certainly an impressive platform season: But how truly great is he, and can he sustain it into his age-40 season? If you were making an exciting baseball player in a lab, it might come out looking like Turner. Turner is the type of player scouts drool over: a five-tool talent. Grade: B+ Trea Turner, Phillies Mitchell Leff / Getty Images Sport / Getty While Devers' bat certainly plays there, the timing of that move will help inform just how good of a deal this is. Only six players who've played 500 games have a better wRC+ than Devers since 2019:Įventually, like Miggy, Devers will have to move across the diamond, and it could happen sooner than expected, as he ranked 24th percentile in outs above average last year, according to Baseball Savant. Devers is obviously not the same hitter as peak Cabrera, who won back-to-back MVPs, but he is an exceptionally good and reliable slugger. Cabrera was nearly 32, well into his Hall of Fame career, and had already made the full-time switch from third base to first when his deal originally hatched. Comparing the two deals makes for an interesting - though inexact - discussion. His deal actually narrowly beats Miguel Cabrera's eight-year, $248-million contract by average annual value. The Red Sox, meanwhile, avoid an extension that invests too far into a player's decline, with Devers' deal expiring just as he's turning 37. But he'd have been unlikely to earn much more, and it probably would've been spread over more years. The two-time All-Star was eligible to test the open market next winter but opted for just over $31 million per year for a decade, and it's definitely tough to blame him.Ĭould Devers have gotten more than 10 years and $313.5 million on the open market at the end of this season? Probably, given the way some teams are throwing around money and the fact that he's 26. It does help to break down this deal using the second figures, though, as those are Devers' true free-agent years. The Boston Red Sox now have their star third baseman through the 2033 season. Whether this is an 11-year, $331-million contract or a 10-year, $313.5-million extension tacked onto a one-year, $17.5-million arbitration-avoidance deal is largely pedantic. Grade: B Rafael Devers, Red Sox Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox / Getty Images Sport / Getty If Judge can stay healthy and productive while helping the Yankees to a World Series in the first half of the contract, fans should be able to handle any age-related decline that may arise over the last few years of the megadeal. 211/.310/.462 in 44 career postseason contests and has been unable to lead the Yankees past the League Championship Series in three trips. Judge struggled mightily in New York's four-game sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros, mustering just one hit in 16 at-bats. 490 OPS and a pair of home runs in nine postseason games for the Yankees in 2022. Though Judge has been able to stay healthy over the past two seasons, he battled injuries a number of times during his career.Īdditionally, for as good as Judge has been in the regular season, many Yankees fans are looking at October as the barometer for success. But that's one of the biggest concerns with giving him a nine-year deal. The 30-year-old should be able to produce on par with this commitment if he can stay on the field. He'll take over as the club's captain, the first time the Yankees anointed a player with that distinction since Derek Jeter retired. After rejecting New York's seven-year, $213.5-million extension offer before the 2022 campaign, Judge earned himself an additional two years and more than $130 million on his new deal. He authored one of the great walk-year campaigns in MLB history last season.
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